The urgency to shift the global economy toward a low-carbon model has never been greater. Without a fundamental transformation in how societies produce, consume, move, and live, climate change will continue to threaten the well-being of people and the planet alike.

Yet, this transition must be equitable. It cannot come at the cost of vulnerable communities, nor should it reinforce or deepen existing inequalities. On the contrary, the transition to a low-carbon future presents a powerful opportunity to pursue inclusive development. To seize this opportunity, countries can leverage data-driven monitoring and evaluation to track whether transitions deliver their benefits without unacceptable negative consequences.

South Africa: A multidimensional perspective of justice at the heart of the climate debate

South Africa’s just transition monitoring, evaluation and learning framework represents a pioneering effort in tracking progress toward a justice-centered climate transition. It supports the implementation of South Africa’s government-adopted national Just Transition Framework and responds to the core question: how do we know if we are on course for a just transition?

The country’s monitoring, evaluation and learning framework embraces a multidimensional view of justice – restorative, procedural, and distributive – as central pillars guiding its economic transformation to achieve climate goals. Restorative justice focuses on repairing historical harms, particularly in communities affected by extractive industries, through initiatives such as environmental rehabilitation, social protection, and land reform. Procedural justice calls for inclusive, transparent decision-making, especially for those most affected. Distributive justice ensures that the costs and benefits of the transition are shared fairly, through employment training, social safety nets, and community-based renewable energy initiatives. The framework affirms that justice must be embedded in the design, implementation, and assessment of all interventions, asking consistently, “Who benefits?” and “How are structural inequities being addressed?”

The framework is principles-based and adaptable. It encourages alignment across diverse actors while allowing for flexible implementation. It is designed as an ecosystem, decentralized, self-organising, and built on collaboration, with justice at the core. A high-level theory of change links institutional reform, decarbonisation, and people-centred decision-making. It integrates institutional data, community-driven research, and periodic evaluations to monitor progress. Indicators are tracked across geographies, sectors, and social groups, using both quantitative and qualitative data.

South Africa’s approach demonstrates that justice is not an add-on, but the foundation of a meaningful transition, providing a living example of how to monitor not just progress, but fairness.

A man working in coal mining in South Africa. South Africa’s just transition monitoring, evaluation and learning framework calls for repairing past harms, supporting new livelihoods, and ensuring that those most affected by extractive industries are not left behind.

Nigeria: A blueprint for gender-inclusive and participatory transition monitoring

Nigeria’s just and gender-inclusive transition monitoring, reporting, and verification framework marks a significant advancement in the country’s commitment to an equitable and sustainable development pathway. As a major oil-producing economy, Nigeria faces a particularly critical challenge in ensuring that the shift to a low-carbon economy addresses not only climate targets but also the social and economic realities of its population. 

Aligned with Nigeria’s national priorities, including its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement, the framework aims to ensure that the benefits of the transition are equitably distributed, particularly among vulnerable groups, like women, youth, indigenous communities, and persons with disabilities. Quantitative methods combined with qualitative insights from stakeholder consultations ensure accurate, timely, and contextually relevant data.

Gender inclusion is a clear and intentional priority in Nigeria’s approach. Recognizing the disproportionate impacts of climate change and economic transitions on women, it can inform the government to facilitate a policy response. It embeds gender-sensitive indicators for ambitious targets, such as ensuring 50% participation of women and youth in climate-related projects by 2030. Indicators also capture women’s access to land and energy, income, participation in decision-making, and employment in transition sectors. The Ministry of Women Affairs is mandated to collect and analyse gender-related data, supported by civil society organizations. 

Equally critical to the success of the just and gender-inclusive transition monitoring framework is its emphasis on broad and robust stakeholder engagement. From the outset, stakeholders from Nigeria’s vast landscape of actors, including ministries, NGOs, communities, and private sector actors, were involved in identifying the indicators and shaping the reporting procedures outlined in the framework. Stakeholder engagement is a continuous process and priority. Nigeria foresees feedback mechanisms and regular consultations in support of continuous learning and adaptive policymaking.

With gender inclusion and stakeholder engagement at its core, Nigeria’s approach to monitoring puts people at the centre, ensuring that all voices are heard and all communities benefit in the journey toward a just transition.

A woman sprinkling water on her fish in the market in Lagos, Nigeria. Nigeria’s just and gender-inclusive transition monitoring, reporting, and verification framework sets a target of 50% participation of women and youth in climate-related projects by 2030. Editorial credit: Omotayo Kofoworola / Shutterstock.com

Brazil: A vision for institutionalizing a data-driven just transition 

Brazil is updating its national climate change plan (Plano Clima) – the plan for the implementation of Brazil’s latest NDCs submitted at COP29 in Baku – including a just transition transversal strategy to emphasize sustainable development and social equity. In parallel, Brazil is designing a just transition monitoring and evaluation framework that aims to track and address potential socio-economic and socio-environmental impacts of the plan’s sectoral mitigation targets. The synchronous development of the national plan and the monitoring framework is proof of Brazil’s commitment to embedding data-driven just transition in the national climate strategy from the very beginning. 

For Brazil, a vast country with many diversities, just transition planning and monitoring must be developed in line with local, regional and sectoral specificities. Key institutions involved in the monitoring framework include a restructured Interministerial Committee on Climate Change, a multi-level council with sub-national actors, the private sector, and academia, and a National Energy Transition Plan and Forum. These mechanisms help ensure that monitoring is not merely technical but political and participatory, and ensure that policies and measures respond to Brazil’s complex realities.

Acknowledgement and engagement of representatives from indigenous peoples and traditional communities, alongside stakeholders from civil society, academia, and industry, helps the government gather and integrate Brazil’s diverse perspectives. Including these groups is not symbolic, but essential to shaping equitable solutions that guarantee rights, ensure energy access, and promote inclusive governance.

By building a climate architecture that connects monitoring directly to governance and policy implementation, Brazil is laying the foundations for a model where transparency, social dialogue, and systemic inclusion are institutionalized. 

People holding hands wearing traditional colorful bracelets of indigenous peoples in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Brazil’s just transition monitoring framework aims to place the rights, voices, and territories of indigenous peoples at the center of climate planning. Editorial credit: Talita Santana Campos / Shutterstock.com