Ambitious NDCs deliver results only when policies are effective and their impacts measurable. ICAT supports countries in building robust systems to assess, track and strengthen the impacts of climate policies. Experiences from ICAT country projects show how policy impact assessment can be embedded in national systems and directly inform NDC 3.0 design and implementation. Together, these experiences underscore that credible, evidence-based policy impact assessment is central to effective climate action and to achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement.
Achieving NDC targets requires climate action that is not only ambitious and transformative but also realistic and implementable. Such action is enabled by well-designed policies that translate national targets into concrete measures on the ground. To ensure this link between targets, policies and action is robust, policy impacts must be systematically assessed, monitored, evaluated and used to inform policy updates. Impact assessments provide critical insights into whether policies are delivering the intended outcomes and how they can be strengthened. Importantly, these assessments go beyond measuring greenhouse gas emission reductions to capture broader sustainable development impacts, helping policymakers design climate strategies that deliver multiple benefits for people, economies and the environment.
ICAT supports countries at different stages of their transparency journeys to develop robust frameworks for the MRV of policy and measures, including for regular impact assessment, which enables evidence-based decision-making and ensures that targets are being met. ICAT projects in Costa Rica, Ghana, Guinea and Namibia illustrate how countries are building this critical capacity, with each country adopting an approach that is tailored to their national circumstances.
With its ambitious commitments, including net-zero emissions by 2050, Costa Rica has long been recognized as a leader in climate action. The National Climate Change Metrics System (SINAMECC), an integrated platform for tracking and reporting on climate action, is key to the country’s transparency efforts. ICAT has worked closely with national institutions in Costa Rica to strengthen SINAMECC and embed policy impact assessment directly within this established system.
A primary focus has been on integrating ICAT’s Sustainable Development Methodology and Transformational Change Methodology into SINAMECC, enabling Costa Rica to assess not only greenhouse gas impacts but also broader impacts of climate policies on sustainable development and transformational change. Under an ICAT project, the national registry of mitigation and adaptation actions was thus expanded to include variables to assess sustainable development and transformational change impacts, in line with the respective ICAT guides.
This effort focused on six mitigation and six adaptation measures, demonstrating the system’s practical value for evidence-based policy evaluation. The project also delivered usability improvements to SINAMECC, enhanced inter-institutional coordination and targeted capacity-building through hands-on training.
The policy evaluation highlighted several strengths and challenges, as well as clear opportunities to enhance implementation. Notably, the guidelines provide a comprehensive vision that goes beyond emissions reduction by linking social, economic and environmental benefits. However, applying mitigation, sustainable development and transformational change methodologies in parallel can place a heavy burden on technical teams, particularly when processes are lengthy. To address this, it is recommended to better integrate and plan work sessions in advance, allowing coordinated data collection across greenhouse gas, sustainable development and transformational change dimensions.
A recurring challenge is the limited availability of systematic data and well-defined baselines, which constrain the robust quantification of impacts. To overcome this, integrated monitoring systems aligned with SINAMECC—incorporating sustainable development and transformational change variables—were recommended to be embedded from the early design stages of measures. This approach supported improved data systematization and enabled consistent, long-term monitoring of impacts.
Overall, this assessment provides decision-makers, public institutions and civil society organizations with a robust technical foundation to strengthen strategic planning, accountability and the mobilization of financial and human resources, ensuring that Costa Rica’s climate actions serve as catalysts for sustainable, transformational change aligned with national development priorities and climate justice goals.
Namibia’s Renewable Energy Feed-in Tariff (REFIT) rules demonstrate how robust policy assessment can turn climate ambition into measurable results. With support from ICAT, Namibia assessed the real-world impacts of REFIT—providing credible evidence of its contribution to national climate goals and sustainable development.
Introduced in 2015 by the Electricity Control Board, REFIT rules were designed to attract private investment in renewable electricity and reduce reliance on imported, carbon-intensive power. By offering fixed, technology-specific tariffs for projects up to 5 MW—covering solar, wind, biomass, and small hydropower—the policy created a predictable environment for Independent Power Producers.
The results are tangible. The REFIT has enabled more than 180 MW of renewable energy capacity and mobilized over NAD 3 billion (USD 186 million) in private investment. This has diversified Namibia’s energy mix and reduced dependence on electricity imports from the coal-dominated Southern African Power Pool.
Quantifying climate impact for NDC implementation
To determine whether REFIT rules are truly delivering on their climate and development objectives, the ICAT project in Namibia supported the country in undertaking a comprehensive policy impact assessment. Applying ICAT’s Renewable Energy and Sustainable Development methodologies, the assessment moved beyond headline capacity figures to quantify for the first time greenhouse gas reductions alongside broader socioeconomic benefits.
Using GACMO, calibrated with data from Namibia’s 2024 National Inventory Document, the assessment estimates that REFIT rules could deliver cumulative emission reductions of between 3.2 and 3.9 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent by 2030. This represents approximately 35 per cent of Namibia’s total mitigation potential in the energy sector under its updated NDC.
Under a realistic policy scenario that accounts for grid constraints, financing challenges, and institutional delays, renewable capacity is projected to reach 298 MW by 2030, delivering around 346 ktCO₂e in annual emission reductions.
These quantified results provide policymakers with clear, evidence-based confirmation that REFIT rules offer a measurable contribution to Namibia’s NDC. The findings directly inform NDC tracking, MRV system design, and feed into the preparation of Biennial Transparency Reports under the Paris Agreement’s Enhanced Transparency Framework.
Delivering development benefits
ICAT support also enabled Namibia to assess the REFIT rules’ broader socioeconomic impacts. By 2030, REFIT-supported projects are expected to:
These outcomes advance national development priorities and contribute to SDGs 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy), 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth), 9 (Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure), and 13 (Climate Action).
Strengthening transparency and continuous improvement
A national validation workshop in October 2025 confirmed the assessment results and reinforced Namibia’s commitment to transparency under the Paris Agreement. The ICAT-supported process led to the establishment of a policy MRV framework with clear indicators and institutional roles, embedding impact assessment within national systems.
Importantly, the assessment identified key constraints—including limited grid capacity and high upfront financing costs—that reduce projected outcomes to about 85 per cent of initial technical potential. By highlighting these bottlenecks, the analysis provides a roadmap for corrective action, from grid upgrades to green finance solutions.
A model for evidence-based climate governance
Namibia’s REFIT experience demonstrates the value of ICAT support in moving from policy design to measurable impact. By quantifying mitigation outcomes, identifying development co-benefits, and strengthening MRV systems, ICAT has helped transform the REFIT rules into a transparent, results-driven instrument for NDC implementation.
The lesson is clear: credible climate action depends on the ability to measure what policies deliver. In Namibia, ICAT’s contribution has ensured that renewable energy expansion is not only accelerating, but also accountable, evidence-based, and aligned with national development priorities.
Transport-sector climate policies often deliver benefits beyond greenhouse gas reductions, from improved air quality to reduced congestion and fuel savings. Understanding these benefits can help to strengthen the case for ambitious climate action. In Ghana, ICAT support helped in quantifying these wider impacts in the transport sector.
Globally, transport is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, responsible for nearly 30 per cent of CO₂ emissions, with urban transport systems being a key driver. In Ghana, the challenge of growing emissions intersects with congestion, air pollution and health risks, particularly affecting children and young adults under 35. Recognizing these risks, the government of Ghana has committed to ambitious climate goals through its NDC, with policies like the National Climate Change Policy and the Energy Transition Framework, which aims to gradually eliminate fossil fuel-powered vehicles.
During the project, Ghana’s Environmental Agency and Ministry of Transport applied the Transport Sector Climate Action Co-Benefits Evaluation (TRACE) tool to assess the non-climate impacts of urban transport decarbonization.
TRACE assesses four types of impact: road congestion, traffic accidents, fuel savings and air pollution. For Ghana, this meant quantifying the avoided costs associated with the implementation of transport policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions through reducing travel time, improving air quality and protecting human health. TRACE results are presented in formats designed to support communication with decision-makers. One challenge identified was data availability, highlighting the need to strengthen data collection systems. Nevertheless, Ghana’s experience shows how assessing socioeconomic benefits can provide a more comprehensive picture of the wider impacts of climate policy.
The quantitative assessment of non-climate impacts has strengthened Ghana’s capacity for informed development planning. Through TRACE, national experts modelled passenger transport, freight movement and fuel consumption across urban areas, revealing the scale of existing inefficiencies and the potential gains from targeted interventions. The national data, e.g., fuel costs and consumption, and the cost of road accidents, are used as inputs to the TRACE tool to quantify the total costs avoided by implementing mitigation actions in the transport sector relative to the business-as-usual scenario. By 2040, the avoided costs can reach up to GHS 12 billion (about USD 1.1 billion) annually, providing significant benefits and contributing to national development.
The assessment also strengthened understanding of the links between transport emissions, air quality and public health. Transport-related air pollution disproportionately affects children and young adults, with more than 60 per cent of road-related fatalities occurring among people under 35—many of whom are economically active breadwinners. While the TRACE application focused on exposure trends rather than monetised health impacts, the findings reinforce the role of transport decarbonisation as a powerful public health intervention aligned with Ghana’s broader social and economic development goals.
Beyond technical modeling, the ICAT project strengthened national capacity to analyze and interpret transport-sector interventions, equipping policymakers and planners with data-driven tools to make informed decisions. By integrating TRACE into national planning, Ghana is not only addressing climate change but also improving mobility, protecting public health and promoting economic efficiency in its cities.
The ICAT project demonstrates that decarbonizing urban transport is a win-win strategy: it reduces emissions, enhances urban living and safeguards the health and productivity of Ghana’s citizens. It is a critical step toward cleaner, safer, and more sustainable cities in Ghana.
For countries at earlier stages of developing transparency frameworks, establishing strong institutional and technical foundations is critical. The ICAT project in Guinea is supporting this work by helping to build an economy-wide MRV framework and enhance national capacity for policy impact assessment.
A core element of the project has been developing institutional arrangements for data sharing and coordination. The ICAT project helped prepare a report on institutional arrangements that can underpin a more robust national transparency system. Technical capacity-building has been equally important. Training on the GACMO tool enabled the country team to input national data, develop mitigation scenarios and document assumptions and results.
Guinea also applied some of ICAT’s methodologies to assess policy impacts, including for a study to estimate the sustainable development impacts of transport policies using the TRACE tool.
Guinea applied the TRACE tool to assess a set of transport mitigation measures included in Guinea’s 2021 NDC and identify and quantify potential benefits and associated costs/savings. Main findings from the assessment include:
While data improvements are necessary, the quantified benefits, especially in fuel consumption, public health and associated cost savings, can be used as a basis for strengthening future NDCs and transport policies, and scaling up electric mobility initiatives.
These countries have taken diverse pathways to strengthening policy impact assessment. These efforts are united by the recognition that robust policy impact assessment strengthens countries’ abilities to make evidence-based policy choices, track progress towards targets and ensure transparency in reporting. ICAT methodologies and tools provide practical frameworks that countries can adapt to their circumstances; and as countries prepare for more ambitious, transformational policies and actions, this capacity will only grow in importance.
Story originally published in the 2025 ICAT Impact report
Out Now: The 2025 ICAT Impact Report
Building the basis for ambition: ICAT support for NDC 3.0 submissions
ICAT Spotlight: Policy Assessment
