Evidence-based policies, founded on robust data and information, allow countries to confidently advance the transition to a low-carbon, climate-resilient economy. Transparency supports the development of an evidence base for such policies, through frameworks that provide credible data needed for assessing policy impacts, helping inform decision-makers and guide their implementation. 

Policy impact assessments provide invaluable information for policymakers. They help assess how a policy is meeting a country’s targets, including how it is impacting greenhouse gas emissions, and, more broadly, the environment and socio-economic development. They allow leaders to estimate and evaluate both the benefits and the costs of climate action, helping maximize positive outcomes and minimize or mitigate negative impacts.

As a process, policy impact assessments can be applied to sectoral or economy-wide, national or subnational policies. It is relevant for both existing policies, to track impact as these are implemented, and policies under preparation, to improve their design and effectiveness. The assessment offers insights into a policy’s strengths and weaknesses, and suggests data-based recommendations for improvement, either at the design stage or through course-correction during implementation. After a policy’s implementation, it can serve to evaluate its success and draw valuable lessons for future action. 

Fiji: Transforming the agriculture sector 

Cows drinking water in a stream in Fiji.

In the South Pacific island nation of Fiji, the agricultural sector is at the intersection of climate action and economic and social development. The sector’s development is essential for the country’s food security and economic growth. However, high emissions of greenhouse gasses from agriculture have to be considered against Fiji’s climate objectives. In light of this challenge, Fiji conducted a data-based assessment of the national policies on rice cultivation and livestock – two highly emitting subsectors – looking into their impacts on both greenhouse gas emissions and sustainable development.

To make policy assessment and further evaluations possible, robust and credible data is needed. For this purpose, Fiji put in place a measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) framework, and a Climate Change Act that introduced a legal infrastructure of roles and responsibilities. The policy assessment showed that increased production in both sub-sectors could increase greenhouse gas emissions by 70 per cent in the period 2020-2030. On the environmental and socio-economic front, both positive and negative impacts were identified. Potential detrimental environmental impacts included contaminated water sources, degradation of soil quality, deforestation and air pollution. On the other hand, increased production could improve food security, reduce imports and create jobs, while biogas production from waste could supply clean energy. 

As a next step, recommendations were developed for policy improvement to support the competitiveness of the sector while reducing its carbon footprint. Regarding livestock, possible solutions included the use of manure for capture and use of methane for energy generation and the selection of cattle breeds with lower methane production and modifying feed composition. For rice cultivation, improved nutrient management practices, use of manure as an organic fertilizer, efficient irrigation techniques and high-yielding, climate-resilient rice varieties were recommended. These practices could reduce emissions, increase productivity, improve soil and water quality and decrease farmers’ vulnerability to increasingly uncertain monsoon rainfall. Finally, including agriculture targets in Fiji’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) could help strengthen climate action commitments and track progress toward the new objectives.

Having shed light on both challenges and opportunities, the impact assessment of Fiji’s agricultural policies enables the Fijian government to move forward in an informed way. This includes identification of data needs at the level of detail required to track and further refine policies. It opens up the way for the necessary transformation of the sector to meet the requirements of a low carbon economy, while maintaining its profitability and contribution to sustainable development.

Zimbabwe: Readjusting the course of the energy transition

Harare Zimbabwe, two men installing solar panels on a house roof.

Zimbabwe’s NDC sets an ambitious objective of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 40 per cent by 2030 compared to the business as usual scenario. An important step to achieve this is the development of Zimbabwe’s green energy sector, harnessing the potential of solar, wind, hydro, and bioenergy. Two national policies are central: the National Renewable Energy Policy and the National Biofuels Policy. Zimbabwe performed an impact assessment on the two policies to determine to what extent the policies could contribute to the national climate change mitigation objectives and what their socioeconomic consequences would be. 

The assessment was a multi-step process taking into consideration factors like the design of the policy and different barriers for implementation to determine to what extent the policies could realistically achieve their targets. The results were revelatory. The data showed that while the policy sets ambitious goals for energy production from renewables, only 52 per cent of the target could be realistically achieved, factoring in all barriers and limitations. Similarly, looking at socioeconomic impacts of the policy, the assessment revealed a more modest outcome compared to the policy target. While the development of the two sectors, renewable energy and biofuels, was expected to generate more than 40,000 jobs by 2030 the assessment brought that number down to 20,900. 

The data clearly showed that Zimbabwe’s ambitious energy policies on their own did not guarantee success in achieving the national climate goals. Using the results of these assessments, Zimbabwe is undertaking a comprehensive review of these policies in 2024, in conjunction with the process of updating its NDC. Data-based recommendations from the assessment’s results have fed into a policy paper presented to the Ministry of Energy. The envisaged review of the domestic policies will also inform Zimbabwe’s commitments to the international community in its updated NDC, planned for 2025. Zimbabwe’s strengthened energy policies can help design and implement an ambitious, yet realistic NDC, and restore the country’s trajectory towards a low-carbon energy sector.

Cuba: Leveraging Paris Agreement mechanisms for enhancing domestic action

Havana, Cuba. Photo by tiago claro on Unsplash.

Cuba’s commitment to the global fight against climate change, as reflected in its NDCs, includes the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions across different sectors. As part of its efforts to meet the Paris Agreement’s transparency requirements Cuba designed and improved its MRV framework for the collection and verification of data on sectoral emissions. The new transparency framework provided Cuba with improved and harmonized data, which in turn helped make more accurate calculations and estimations of greenhouse gas emissions and removals. For example, the data revealed that the country had significantly under-estimated the potential reduction in emissions from the energy and transport sector. In its second NDC, to be submitted in 2025, Cuba plans to raise ambition thanks to this new information.

However, the value of the improved climate data goes beyond their intended use under the Paris Agreement, which foresees the submission of regular reports and NDC updates. Their greatest value is in the planning and implementation of national policies. This extends to not only climate policies, but also development policies of the key sectors for Cuba’s climate action and its economy, such as energy, transport and agriculture. Cuba’s vision is to achieve low-carbon national development. Strong national policies founded on data can support this. The stakeholders responsible for the sectoral policies can rely on the data to identify barriers, challenges and opportunities for more effective action that benefits not only the climate, but also Cuba’s economy and the society.

The availability of the new quality data allows for an ex-ante assessment of what policies and measures can be included in the updated NDC, so that it is formulated in a way that is realistic and investment-oriented. For each NDC action, a comprehensive analysis will be conducted to determine its associated costs and to identify potential financial, technological, and other support from both domestic and international sources. While the NDC has a more narrow scope compared to the national policies, it provides a useful framing process for identifying and refining key mitigation actions at the national level, with a solid plan to execute them. In this sense, when Cuba reports on climate action under the Paris Agreement, the country is also reporting on its national policies, and its progress toward achieving the national vision for low-carbon development. Leveraging the Paris Agreement’s transparency mechanisms, Cuba is driving domestic climate and development action forward.